It's March 8, 2009. The market's down 56% from its all-time high, unemployment is over 8% and hurtling toward 10%, it's just been reported that real GDP dropped at a 6.2% annual rate in Q4 of 2008, and it feels like the world is coming to an end. You're tired, exhausted from living though this, and you fall into a deep sleep. So deep, in fact, that you don't wake up until today, 10 years later.
Twenty-two trillion! It's a number we have been hearing a lot lately. Five years ago, it was seventeen trillion. Sometimes as a statement, sometimes a question. Debt – consumer, business, but most notably government – has a permanent spot on many investors' minds. But knowing the level of debt hasn't helped investors. It needs to be taken in context.
In civilized societies, children are taught not to bully. The “#MeToo” movement has declared war on adult sexual bullies. But there is one area where the bullies have not been called out and, in fact, are often applauded, even though they have hurt thousands of times as many people as Harvey Weinstein.
Black Friday had a 23.6% increase in online sales this year, according to Adobe Analytics, which tracks sales at 80 of the top 100 internet retailers, with one-third of the sales via mobile devices – that's up from 29.6% in 2017. Looks like more people are getting comfortable with making buying decisions on the go rather than at a desk.
The odds of a recession happening anytime soon remain remote, we it at 10%, or less. And a recession is what it would take for us to expect a full-blown bear market. In other words, the current downdraft is just heartburn, not a heart attack