The Return of Tax Bullies

In civilized societies, children are taught not to bully. The “#MeToo” movement has declared war on adult sexual bullies. But there is one area where the bullies have not been called out and, in fact, are often applauded, even though they have hurt thousands of times as many people as Harvey Weinstein.

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Adam Puff
No Sign of Recession

Talk about destroying a narrative. On Friday, the Labor Department reported 312,000 new jobs in December, with an additional 58,000 from upward revisions to prior months. Recession talk got crushed.

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Adam Puff
Consumers Stay Strong

Black Friday had a 23.6% increase in online sales this year, according to Adobe Analytics, which tracks sales at 80 of the top 100 internet retailers, with one-third of the sales via mobile devices – that's up from 29.6% in 2017. Looks like more people are getting comfortable with making buying decisions on the go rather than at a desk.

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Adam Puff
Heartburn, Not a Heart Attack

The odds of a recession happening anytime soon remain remote, we it at 10%, or less. And a recession is what it would take for us to expect a full-blown bear market. In other words, the current downdraft is just heartburn, not a heart attack

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Adam Puff
The Growing Deficit

The U.S. federal government reported last week that it ran a deficit of $214 billion in August, the fifth largest deficit for any single month in US history.

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Adam Puff
Wage Growth Steps Up

Average hourly earnings grew 0.4% in August, which meant they were up 2.9% from a year ago, the largest 12-month increase since the economic recovery started in mid-2009.

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Adam Puff
US STOPS SUBSIDIZING GLOBAL GROWTH

But, more to the point, cutting the U.S. corporate tax rate to 21% and boosting tariffs on select countries and products is removing a huge subsidy to growth for the rest of the world. The U.S. is the dominant economy in the world and when it stops subsidizing foreign countries, who have not followed free market principles, economic pain spreads.

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Adam Puff
THE ECONOMIC SURGE

But after cutting tax rates and regulation, Friday's GDP report demolished their theory. Real GDP grew at a 4.1% annual rate in the second quarter, and is up 2.8% in the past year.

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Adam Puff